Washington Watch: Follow the Money

By Mark F. Smith

Given the circumstances of the election, President Bush does not have the type of electoral mandate presidents normally command. And although the Republicans control both houses of Congress, that control is extremely precarious. The Republican margin in the House is less than ten, and the Senate is evenly split, with Republican control dependent on Vice President Cheney’s tiebreaking vote.

Three major issues will dominate the education debate in this closely divided political situation. The first is the president’s education reform proposal, "No Child Left Behind." Released in the first weeks of the administration, it fulfills a major campaign promise of candidate Bush, who asserted that "bipartisan education reform will be the cornerstone of my administration." The stress is on performance for students, teachers, and schools, with strong accountability provisions. They include measures that will punish schools that do not perform up to standards, especially by providing vouchers for parents to send their children to other schools. In addition to debating this proposal, Congress will reauthorize the Elementary and Secondary Education Act this session, so K–12 issues will be very prominent for the next two years.

Some, but not many, higher education issues will come up during the debate. The proposal places a large emphasis on teacher preparation, for example, which will affect teacher education programs in colleges and universities. Vouchers and standardized tests are getting the most air time in these debates, but the fact remains that 93 percent of primary and secondary education is funded at the local and state levels. The federal government makes its influence felt only at the margins.

The funding issue brings up the fact that important debates in Washington are usually about money, and the budget debate this year will set the tone for the Bush administration. Because of the change in administration, the president’s budget will not be released until the end of March, instead of the traditional early February date. Despite the budget’s being proposed in the context of expanding surpluses, the outlook for many federal programs is almost austere. Because of campaign promises to increase spending in particular areas, and commitments to rule other parts of the budget off limits, spending on discretionary domestic programs will be quite limited. A few higher education initiatives have been suggested, but 2001 will more likely see a struggle to maintain current programs.

Two initiatives that have been discussed involve the Pell Grant program and state merit-based scholarships. Details are still being worked out, but the president hopes to increase funding in the Pell Grant program and front-load that increase to emphasize the first two years of college. The administration is also looking into merit-based programs such as the HOPE Scholarship program in Georgia. It provides tuition at state institutions for all Georgia students who maintain a "B" average. There is talk of encouraging similar programs in other states.

The biggest constraint on the budget will be discussed early, and passed outside of the budget process. That is the president’s tax-cut proposal unveiled in early February, which amounts to $1.6 trillion over ten years. The chair of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, has added his formidable endorsement to a major tax cut. Skeptics, including Democrats and some Republicans, have questioned the size and breadth of the reduction, but not the idea of a tax cut itself. So the debate will center on its size, and who will benefit from particular aspects of it. The president has emphasized how his plan benefits all taxpayers, while opponents charge that the benefits are skewed toward wealthier taxpayers.

Ultimately, the resolution to the tax-cut debate will determine the parameters of the budget struggle, and what kind of real impact the president’s education proposal can have on schools across this country.

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