January-February 2001

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Washington Watch: No Mandate

By Ruth Flower

Beyond the muddling results of "Election 2000," one thing emerges with some clarity: the "ho-hum" factor has been soundly ejected from the voting booth. At least one whole generation of voters will understand and endorse the admonition of civics teachers everywhere that "every vote counts." And U.S. voters have chosen a Congress that splits right down the middle between Democrats and Republicans. The 107th Congress will open with 212 Democrats and 221 Republicans in the House and 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats in the Senate.

But the party split in each house tells only a slice of the story. Nationwide, the election returns give a picture (perhaps ironically) of confidence, stability, and basic satisfaction with the way things are going.

Confidence

Campaigns against "Washington insiders" did not carry the day. Senate incumbents had an 80 percent chance of being reelected, while House incumbents had a better than 97 percent chance.

Stability

Senate incumbents won handily and will feel secure in their positions. Newsworthy tight races notwithstanding, successful incumbent senators won by an average vote of 65 percent; two-thirds won with more than 55 percent of the vote.

Satisfaction

At the close of 435 House campaigns, 9 formerly Republican seats were shifted to Democrats and 8 formerly Democratic seats went to Republicans. After 33 Senate campaigns, 5 new senators are Democrats taking formerly Republican seats; 2 are Republicans taking formerly Democratic seats.

Neither party is attempting to read a mandate into the slim margins of victory. Congressional leaders speak publicly of their hopes for cooperation and bipartisan pragmatism and acknowledge off camera the frustrating and fruitless partisan wrangling that characterized the 106th Congress. This recent history will be hard to overcome. Coalitions and voting blocs are likely to form and to condition their votes on the satisfaction of specific demands, making brokering agreements with either party difficult.

Higher education issues show up most often in the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions; the House Committee on Education and the Workforce; and the Judiciary Committees and the Appropriations Committees of both houses.

The membership of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions is likely to stay the same as it was in the last Congress, and James Jeffords of Vermont is likely to remain as chair. The Senate Judiciary Committee, which handles intellectual property and immigration issues, will lose two Republicans—John Ashcroft of Missouri and Spencer Abraham of Michigan. At present, there are ten Republicans and eight Democrats on each of these committees. Because of the close margins in the Senate, Democrats may push for a more even party allocation.

The Senate Appropriations Committee will lose Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey, who retired, and Slade Gorton of Washington, who was defeated by Maria Cantwell.

The House Committee on Education and the Workforce will lose its longtime chair, Bill Goodling of Pennsylvania, along with four other Republicans and one Democrat. A contest for the chair is expected, with two top contenders being Tom Petri of Wisconsin and Marge Roukema of New Jersey.

Under House rules, Buck McKeon of California must relinquish the chair of the subcommittee on Post-Secondary Education, Training, and Lifelong Learning. Next in line are Petri, who may take the full committee chair, Jim Greenwood of Pennsylvania and Lindsay Graham of South Carolina. The full committee includes twenty-seven Republicans and twenty-two Democrats. With 49 percent of the House, the Democrats may seek a couple of additional seats on this committee.

Education issues will center at first on the reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, which bogged down in partisan battles in the last session. The Judiciary Committee may focus on Internet privacy issues. And the Appropriations Committee will, of course, consider education funding. Tax credits and other benefits for college and lifelong education will almost certainly be on the table, since both parties seek versions of such legislation. But the reauthorization of the Higher Education Act is a couple of years away at this point, so higher education policy is not likely to be high on the agenda of the 107th Congress.